2020 Cross Country State Meet Preview: Boys Teams
Team Predictions (1-24):
1. Columbus North
2. Brebeuf
3. Carmel
4. Noblesville
5. Fishers
6. Center Grove
7. Hamilton Southeastern
8. Concordia
9. Chesterton
10. Guerin Catholic
11. Zionsville
12. Goshen
13. Bloomington North
14. Floyd Central
15. Carroll 16. Crown Point
17. Penn
18. Bloomington South 19. Warsaw 20. Northview – No Thomas Chapman 21. Jasper
22. Lake Central 23. Western
24. Munster
Teams That Can Win:
* Columbus North – The Bulldogs have been the most consistent team this season. They have a legit front-runner in Reese Kilbarger-Stumpff and a stellar top 5 runners. They will be really tough to beat and should be considered the slight favorite.
* Carmel – Carmel most likely has the lowest stick in sensational Sophomore Kole Mathison. Their #2-#5 are really solid but haven’t broke out quite yet. They will most likely need to get their second and third runners into the top 25-30 to have a chance.
* Brebeuf – Brebeuf has momentum on their side. They are riding high coming into the tournament. Krishna Thirunavukkarasu has established himself as a top 10 threat and #2 and #3 runners Cameron Todd and Ezra Burrell have been a thorn in the side of the Greyhounds as they are drawing lower scores at those positions.
Teams In The Mix For The Podium:
* Noblesville – Theoretically, the Millers have the upside to win a State Championship. Injuries have bothered them up to this point, though. If they can put it all together, they actually match up very well against Carmel and Brebeuf.
* Fishers – Fishers looks to have a good chance to land on the podium based on their talent and overall resume this season. They were off a bit last week at the Semi-State, but getting some of their runners back up in the pack where they belong along with some good front-running by Will Clark, the Tigers should like their chances.
* Hamilton Southeastern – HSE, much like their rival Fishers looked a bit off last week. They have proven this season how dangerous they can be, however. With a strong effort 1-5, they have a really good shot to finish top 5.
* Center Grove – The Trojans have great depth 1-6. Their issue at the Semi-State was failing to get a low stick. If Drew Costelow can find his way into the top 15 at State, it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see them on the podium * Concordia Lutheran – Concordia lands here based on a strong Semi-State performance along with their reputation to run well when it counts. Their roster brings a lot of experience and they are certainly a threat to finish on the podium.
Teams With An Outside Shot At The Podium:
* Chesterton – The Trojans might be the most overlooked team heading into the State Meet. They dominated the New Prairie Semi-State and have been rolling with a lot of momentum lately. The Region has a history of surprising performances in Terre Haute, and they fit the resume.
* Guerin Catholic – Guerin is riding high after a great Semi-State meet. Unfortunately, lacking a front runner makes their odds of reaching the podium unlikely. If they can get a top 25 finisher and their pack can sneak ahead of the HSE/Fishers/Concordia packs, they might have a chance.
* Zionsville – Zionsville has a great front runner and a good mix of young pieces who carry a lot of upside. Their runners have shown flashes at times, but haven’t had the breakthrough needed to expect them to finish in the top 5.
2020 Cross Country State Meet Preview: Girls Teams
Team Predictions (1-24):
1. Carmel
2. FW Carroll
3. Columbus North
4. Hamilton Southeastern
5. Zionsville
6. North Central (Indy)
7. FW Concordia
8. Franklin Central
9. Floyd Central
10. Chesterton
11. Northview
12. Bloomington North
13. Penn
14. Franklin
15. Noblesville
16. Valparaiso
17. Fishers
18. FW Homestead
19. Bloomington South
20. Lake Central
21. Wheeler
22. Warsaw
23. Jasper
24. Culver Academy
Teams That Can Win:
* Carmel – The Greyhounds have been a pretty clear number one for our committee since a narrow one-point victory over two-time defending champ Carroll at the Marion Invite in early September on a day the two blueblood programs posted identical Inccstats team ratings. Senior Annie Christie is an individual contender—she won the Shelbyville Semistate pretty handily last week—and sophomore Jasmine Klopstad gives the ‘Hounds another likely All-Stater. Carmel is deeper—the emergence of senior Brooklyn Edwards and junior Jamie Klavon as scoring threats in October has been huge—and therefore has more margin of error than Carroll.
* FW Carroll – The Chargers have won the last two state meets and nearly won three years ago as well so this is a familiar position for them. Carroll can counteract Carmel’s frontrunning with senior Zoe Duffus the most likely individual winner, though the jump the Chargers get on the ‘Hounds will likely be a scant few points. Taking missing runners into account—junior Brooke Hansen isn’t listed in results from the regional and semistate—Carroll had a superior adjusted rating to Carmel at the semistate. If Hansen runs and performs at the same level as the sectional (19:09 per inccstats’ adjusted ratings), we project just slightly less than a 50% chance that Carroll wins. The Chargers are better upfront, perhaps even much better through four runners, but the gap between Carroll’s fifth and Carmel’s fifth could prove to be the deciding factor.
Teams In The Mix For The Podium:
* Columbus North – The Bull Dogs are a clear number three and have been essentially all season. Senior Mackenzie Barnett is a likely All-Stater for North, and the pack behind her is strong enough to guarantee a podium finish with season-average performances.
* Franklin Central – The Flashes are in the state finals for the second time in three years. FC has exactly five runners that could score on a top-five team and a big gap after that. If all five of them are on, as they were in the team’s season-best performance at the semistate, the Flashes could definitely ascend the podium this weekend.
* Hamilton Southeastern – The Royals had the third best performance of any team at the semistate level based on Inccstats team ratings, and the advanced stats site gives Southeastern a 91.4% chance to land on the podium. Senior Halle Hill, no stranger to All-State finishes, is likely to earn an individual medal as well.
* Zionsville – The Eagles are on a five-year podium streak that includes three seasons in the top two. Zionsville is the most likely fifth place team; the Eagles are ranked fifth on inccstats season-long ratings and have some margin of error for sub-par performance with a deeper squad than the teams ranked sixth or seventh.
Teams With An Outside Shot At The Podium:
* Chesterton – The Trojans are the definition of an “outside shot” with a 5.4% chance to finish in the top five on Inccstats and a frontrunner in junior Bailey Ranta to guarantee a good start in scoring. If Chesterton can pop off a season best performance and a few of the teams ahead in the rankings stumble, a fifth-place finish isn’t out of the question.
* Floyd Central – The Highlanders are the highest ranked of this group heading into the state meet. Floyd was a little down at the semistate, but we expect junior Jaydon Cirincione to bounce back and possibly finish in the top 25 to give the ‘Landers a good start. Floyd is probably going to go a little too deep at five to push for medals.
* FW Concordia – The Cadets are an experienced and well-coached group with eight state meet appearances in their line-up. Concordia is quite a bit further back when taking the whole season into account, but this is a team running well at the right time.
* North Central (Indy) – The Panthers have a single-digit scorer in senior Ellen Baker. If NC performs more like it did at the regional than it did this past weekend at the semistate, a podium finish is not unattainable.
Mock meet (based on Inccstats’ adjusted semistate performances): 1. Carmel 61 2. Carroll 90 3. CN 167 4. HSE 173 5. FC 225
6. Zionsville 253 7. Floyd 280 8. Concordia 290 9. NC 315 10. Northview 318
Mock meet (based on Inccstats’ season-long ratings):
1. Carmel 66 2. Carroll 72
3. CN 148
4. HSE 163
5. Zionsville 266
6. FC 309
7. Floyd 322
8. BN 345
9. NC 354
10. Penn 359
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