Check back each day this week for a new IHSAA regional preview! By Friday, we'll have all five covered!
NEW PRAIRIE REGIONAL PREVIEWS:
Girls Individual Predictions:
1. Macey Thompson, 10, Lake Central
2. Jenna Walker, 9, Kankakee Valley
3. Whitney Anderson, 10, Valparaiso
4. Chloe Neal, 10, Lake Central
5. Lana Bruggeman, 9, Lake Central
6. Shreya Nayee, 9, Penn
7. Lila Van Hoveln, 10, Penn
8. Madisyn Mikels, 11, Portage
9. Faith Spain, 12, LaPorte
10. Mia Hodgson, 11, Wawasee
11. Kassandra Ortega, 12, Goshen
12. Jolie Burleson, 12, Highland
13. Ena Gilliana, 11, Valparaiso
14. Elora Bliss, 11, Munster
15. Aubrey Neal, 9, Lake Central
16. Isabella Bryan, 11, Morgan Township
17. Shae Bucher, 10, Morgan Township
18. Zoe Roberts, 12, Concord
19. Ellie Olthof, 12, Illiana Christian
20. Ari Balinnang, 11, Penn
How the Girls Individual Race Might Unfold
* Macey Thompson of Lake Central is the clear favorite here, and she could finish in the top five at next week’s state meet. Kankakee Valley freshman Jenna Walker has emerged in the last several weeks and could upset Thompson. Valparaiso sophomore Whitney Anderson was fifth at last year’s state meet and could push Thompson as well.
Girls Teams Predictions:
1. Lake Central
2. Penn
3. Valparaiso
4. Morgan Township
5. Goshen
6. Portage
7. Crown Point
8. Chesterton
9. Highland
10. Kankakee Valley
11. Northridge
12. Westview
13. Illiana Christian
14. Munster
15. South Bend St. Joe’s
16. LaPorte
17. Wawasee
18. Concord
19. Hobart
20. Adams
21. New Prairie
22. Rennsalaer Central
23. West Central
24. Winamac
25. Tri-County
Girls Team Commentary
In the Mix to Win:
* Lake Central – LC is the heavy favorite here and should harbor hope for a top-two finish at state, though the gap was under twenty points on the mock meet based on sectional results.
In Good Position to Qualify for State:
* Morgan Township – The Cherokees are looking for their third consecutive trip to Terre Haute and should get there comfortably. Morgan was nearly seventy points clear of sixth place in the mock met based on sectional performances and has impressive depth for a school of 252 students.
* Penn – This is a group coming off perhaps its best meet of the season, which netted just an 18-point gap to Lake Central in the mock meet. It is unlikely that Penn wins this meet but has a nearly 100% chance to make it to state.
* Valparaiso – The Vikings were third at state last year and could finish in the top ten this season. Anderson gives Valpo a great start, and the Vikes have the requisite depth to finish in the top five at the regional.
On the Bubble:
* Chesterton – The Trojans are a real longshot, but they were ahead of one of the serious contenders in the mock meet about sixty points back from advancement.
* Crown Point – The Bulldogs have been the fifth best team almost all season, but they looked better in August than they do currently. CP will need to bounce back from a rough showing at the sectional, though perhaps that was a planned strategy prior to the season’s most important meet.
* Goshen – The RedHawks have been lurking all season and finished just four points back from Portage in the mock meet. Kassandra Ortega helps Goshen off to a good start, tne the RedHawks have the best pack of any team on the bubble.
* Portage – Coming off perhaps its best meet of the season, Portage is firmly in the mix to advance. Based on sectional performances, Portage finished fifth in the mock meet but will see serious challenges from Crown Point and Goshen. Madisyn Mikels gives Portage the frontrunning needed to advance.
Boys Individual Predictions:
1. Noah Bontrager, 11, Westview
2. Liam Bauschke, 12, Mishawaka
3. Shane Conroy, 12, Portage
4. Max Malloy, 12, Elkhart
5. Ben Perschon, 11, Lake Central
6. Aaron Richter, 12, Elkhart
7. Baylor Miller, 11, Northridge
8. Mason Nobles, 12, Valparaiso
9. Jalen Strietelmeier, 12, Highland
10. Spencer Martin, 10, Chesterton
11. Sam Sienkowski, 12, Valparaiso
12. Kristofer Garner, 12, Lake Central
13. Thomas Krueger, 12, Valparaiso
14. Xavier Miller, 11, Northridge
15. Kush Grewel, 11, Penn
16. Marc Hernandez, 12, Northridge
17. Logan Thibodeau, 12, New Prairie
18. Kale Grewel, 11, Penn
19. Jack Ryan, 12, Penn
20. Otto Leake, 11, Valparaiso
How the Boys Individual Race Might Unfold
* Westview junior Noah Bontrager had the best rating among any New Prairie Regional runners in the sectional round; he is the most serious challenger to state meet favorite Sam Quagliaroli of Fishers for next week. Mishawka senior Liam Bauschke won this race last year and has a better season rating than Bontrager, though he ran the sectional a little more relaxed. Portage senior Shane Conroy was sixth at the state meet last fall and is the fifth-ranked runner this season in Indiana, per inccstats.com’s ratings. Elkhart senior Max Malloy has potential to win here after finishing second at his sectional to classmate Aaron Richter who was fifth at last year’s state finals but has had an up-and-down fall thus far. This is the most competitive regional in terms of individual talent of the five.
Boys Teams Predictions:
1. Northridge
2. Valparaiso
3. Penn
4. Lake Central
5. Chesterton
6. Crown Point
7. Portage
8. Elkhart
9. LaPorte
10. DeMotte Christian
11. Goshen
12. Concord
13. Lowell
14. Illiana Christian
15. Mishawaka
16. Wawasee
17. New Prairie
18. South Bend St. Joe’s
19. Hanover Central
20. Kankakee Valley
21. Hobart
22. Rensselaer Central
23. Benton Central
24. Twin Lakes
25. Merrillville
Boys Team Commentary
In the Mix to Win:
* Northridge – The Raiders have been the most consistent of the top three teams in this regional. Baylor Miller gives them someone at the very front of the race and could be All-State next week. Northridge won the mock meet based on sectional performances by three points.
* Penn – The Kingsmen were second in the mock meet based on sectional performances, just three points behind Northridge. This is the deepest team, by far, in this regional. Senior Aidan Probst has raced just once in the last six weeks. He could be the difference maker if he can give it a go this weekend.
*Valpariaso – The Vikings have the best season rating on inccstats. Though they were more than thirty back in the mock meet, they did that without typical scorer Otto Leake who missed the sectional but ran well through all of September and in the DAC meet three weeks ago. His presence puts Valpo right with Northridge and Penn, if not ahead.
In Good Position to Qualify for State:
* Lake Central – LC has ben solid all year. Frontrunners Ben Perschon and Kristofer Garner provide a lot of security at the front of the race, and the depth is good enough to hold of all of the challengers for top-five spot.
On the Bubble:
* Chesterton – The Trojans ran surprisingly well at the DAC and have carried that momentum into the tournament. Chesterton finished six points back from advancement in the mock meet. This is a very young team with just one senior in the top seven.
* Crown Point – The Bulldogs emerge with the last qualifying spot in the mock meet based on sectional performances. This is a very young team as well. Lack of a true frontrunner could ultimately be CP’s undoing who have a lot of points to make up on these other schools through one or two runners.
* Elkhart – The Lions might have the best duo in Indiana, but the depth is a little suspect to advance. Elkhart is ranked fifth in this regional and enjoys the sixth-best odds to advance. However, the Lions were more than a hundred points back of fifth in the mock meet, though they may have run that while holding back.
*LaPorte – The Slicers are the least likely of this group to advance with under a one percent chance, per inccstats. Still, they were eighth in our mock meet and within fifty points of advancing.
*Portage – This is a team that has been in the mix all season. Conroy gives Portage a great frontrunner and the fourth and fifth runners are at the same level as Crown Point and Chesterton. The middle of the scoring lineup makes it tough to advance.
BROWNSBURG REGIONAL PREVIEWS:
Girls Individual Predictions:
1. Julia Score, 11, Chatard
2. Sadie Foley, 11, Carmel
3. Annabel Pollert, 10, Carmel
4. Lucy Wood, 11, Brebeuf
5. Larkin Taylor, 10, Carmel
6. Sawyer DeWitt, 12, Harrison (WL)
7. Kaitlyn Manfra, 11, Harrison (WL)
8. Eve Schurr, 12, Avon
9. Elizabeth Rocchio, 11, North Central
10. Kelsey Rehmel, 11, North Central
11. Isabel Garcia, 10, Brebeuf
12. Kaelina Matthews, 12, North Central
13. Olivia Mundt, 12, Carmel
14. Kathryn Green, 11, Zionsville
15. Madison Riggins, 9, Brebeuf
16. Letty Banwat, 9, Zionsville
17. Emily Garten, 12, Brebeuf
18. Margo Halle, 9, Carmel
19. Ceci Jackson, 11, Chatard
20. Grace Leppert, 10, Chatard
How the Girls Individual Race Might Unfold
* Chatard junior Julia Score will run away with this and should be in the lead pack next week at the state meet. The real question is for second. Carmel junior Sadie Foley is the most decorated runner with All-State finishes in both cross country and track already. Her teammate, sophomore Annabel Pollert, ran under 18:00 last week in finishing second to Score at the North Central Sectional. Harrison senior Sawyer DeWitt dominated her sectional as did Avon senior Eve Schurr. Brebeuf also boasts a handful of frontrunners who will figure into the chase pack.
Girls Teams Predictions:
1. Carmel
2. Brebeuf
3. North Central
4. Zionsville
5. Chatard
6. Harrison (WL)
7. Brownsburg
8. Avon
9. Maconaquah
10. Seeger
11. Plainfield
12. Western
13. Herron
14. Northview
15. West Lafayette
16. Terre Haute South
17. Cass
18. Ben Davis
19. Faith Christian
20. Owen Valley
21. McCutcheon
22. Terre Haute North
23. Frankfort
24. South Vermillion
25. Logansport
Girls Team Commentary
In the Mix to Win:
* Carmel - The Greyhounds have been the clear number one team in Indiana all season, though there is no guarantee that Carmel brings home its first title since 2020 next week. Senior Ella Gaddis’ breakout race at the sectional gives the ‘Hounds even more depth to pull away from a strong field here.
In Good Position to Qualify for State:
* Brebeuf - The Braves have an excellent top four and enough depth to land on the podium at the state meet. At times, Brebeuf has looked like possibly the second best team in Indiana.
* North Central - The Panthers are a state meet staple and consistently a podium contender. Despite some inconsistency among their scorers, NC should easily advance to Terre Haute again.
* Zionsville - The Eagles may look vulnerable in our mock meet, just twenty points ahead of sixth, but that is based on sectional performances. Zionsville sat its top two runners in the sectional and will bring them back into the lineup this week.
On the Bubble:
* Brownsburg - The Bulldogs hold a 3.9% chance to qualify, per Inccstats.com’s projections. They are significantly back in our mock meet, but Brownsburg’s typical number two runner didn’t race at the sectional. Perhaps some home course advantage can help the ‘Dogs pull an upset.
* Chatard - The Trojans enjoyed their best meet of the season, by far, last week at the North Central Sectional. Score helps Chatard start with just one point, and while the Trojans aren’t complete invulnerable they seem to be racing well at the right time.
* Harrison - The Raiders look headed for the distinction of best team not to qualify for state. Harrison was just twenty back from Zionsville in the mock meet, but that’s with two key runners sitting. Realistically, Harrison would need to leap Chatard for the last spot which is possible but not likely.
Boys Individual Predictions:
1. Jack Hearld, 12, Danville
2. Aboubakar Ibrahim, 11, Ben Davis
3. Ian Baker, 12, Brownsburg
4. Hayden Kemple, 12, Clinton Prairie
5. Brandon Haas, 11, Brownsburg
6. Zach Risner, 12, Avon
7. Jack Capes, 12, Carmel
8. Jack Turnbull, 12, Zionsville
9. Eli Balbach, 11, Brownsburg
10. JD Haines, 12, Chatard
11. Jakob Nehring, 12, Plainfield
12. Christopher Angeles, 12, Frankfort
13. Jonah Kaul, 10, Carmel
14. Joseph Kerzee, 12 Brownsburg
15. Aaron Ferkowicz, 12, Brownsburg
16. Camden Raab, 11, Western
17. Matthias Smith, 12, Pike
18. Carter Buhr, 11, Carmel
19. Quinn Murray, 10, Avon
20. Kiefer Jay, 12, Carmel
How the Boys Individual Race Might Unfold
* Danville senior Jack Hearld isn’t the runaway favorite, but he is the highest ranked throughout this season. Clinton Prairie senior Hayden Kemple dominated his sectional and should vie for the title as well. Both are competing as individuals the rest of the tournament. Hearld beat the deeper field in his sectional race, but Kemple had the best adjusted performance. Brownsburg duo Ian Baker and Brandon Haas should be in the lead pack on their home course. Baker is the most established runner in the field between both sport.s and Haas emerged as a potential All-Stater when he won the Brownsburg Invite in early September. Carmel sophomore Jonah Kaul unexpectedly won the North Central Sectional and had the third best performance rating of any boy in this regional from last week. Teammate Jack Capes had the fourth best performance rating among regional competitors, finishing just two seconds behind Kaul.
Boys Teams Predictions:
1. Brownsburg
2. Carmel
3. Avon
4. Zionsville
5. Ben Davis
6. North Central
7. Pike
8. Plainfield
9. West Lafayette
10. Terre Haute South
11. Harrison (WL)
12. Western
13. Chatard
14. Lafayette Jeff
15. Northview
16. McCutcheon
17. Kokomo
18. Maconaquah
19. Terre Haute North
20. Cass
21. Crawfordsville
22. Heritage Christian
23. Northwestern
24. Clay City
25. Shakamak
Boys Team Commentary
In the Mix to Win:
* Brownsburg - The Bulldogs established themselves as the number one team with emphatic wins over Carmel and Columbus North in consecutive weeks in September. Brownsburg maintained its place among the top of the state with a close third-place finish at Nike Twilight. Baker, Haas and junior Eli Balbach give the ‘Dogs three potential All-Staters. This is likely just another step along the way to competing for the team title next week.
* Carmel - The Greyhounds had a solid sectional meet, placing six in the top eight. Carmel was twenty seconds back per runner from Brownsburg at the Brownsburg Invite and Eagle Classic in September. That gap shrunk to 12 seconds per runner in October at Nike Twilight, and the two teams are even in our mock meet based on sectional performances. It’s unlikely that Carmel has completely caught up over the last six weeks, but the ‘Hounds seem a lot closer.
On the Bubble:
* Avon - The Orioles are the most solid of the four teams vying for three spots to the state finals. Senior Zach Risner gives Avon great frontrunning, and the emergence of sophomore Quinn Murray adds an extra layer of security to the Orioles’ hopes.
* Ben Davis - The Giants are looking for their first state meet trip since 1998. Junior Aboubakar Ibrahim helps BD to score four, and the Giants were solid in the sectional. BD does have less depth than Avon or Zionsville thus, potentially, less margin of error.
* North Central - The Panthers are the big question mark heading into this weekend. NC has an 87.1% chance to advance, per inccstats’ tournament projections recently updated for the regional round. A clear number three team in the regional most of the season, the Panthers did finish behind the other three contenders in scoring at the Nike Twilight with a slower team time as well. The top two runners sat the sectional round; if they race at their usual level this weekend then the Panthers will find themselves in the mix.
* Zionsville - The Eagles are aiming for a ninth consecutive state meet berth after the team most successful seasons in school history. Senior Jack Turnbull gives Zionsville someone at the front of the race and a single-digit number of points to start scoring. The rest of the pack has been remarkably consistent all season, and the Eagles run a season schedule that makes the level of competition at the regional feel undaunting.
NEW HAVEN REGIONAL PREVIEWS:
Girls Individual Predictions:
1. Mallory Weller, 11, Concordia Lutheran
2. Kenya Leitch, 10, Columbia City
3. Daphne Weller, 9, Concordia Lutheran
4. Alice Friesen, 10, Huntington North
5. Rowyn Norris, 10, Leo
6. Lucy Kramer, 10, Homestead
7. Alayna Bruckner, 10, Eastbrook
8. Maren Wilson, 11, Northrop
9. Chloe Gibson, 11, East Noble
10. Lilly Schlicker, 11, Concordia Lutheran
11. Sophia Haslett, 12, Lakewood Park Christian
12. Hannah Clark, 11, Concordia Lutheran
13. Avalyn Goldstone, 9, Homestead
14. Ayla Cashdollar, 12, Manchester
15. Ashlynn Myers, 12, Prairie Heights
16. Lindsey Arnold, 10, Homestead
17. Daisy Niezer, 11, Homestead
18. Samantha Rastrelli, 11, Warsaw
19. Charlee Gibson, 12, Blue River Valley
20. Riley Myers, 9, Columbia City
How the Girls Individual Race Might Unfold
Mallory Weller is the favorite and she likes to run hard from the gun -- you have to if you want to run in the low 17s. Kenya Leitch will likely run with her early, but Weller will probably pull away in the second half of the race. These two could be all alone after the first kilometer/mile. The chase pack would be led by Friesen, Norris, the younger (Daphne) Weller, and Kramer.
Girls Teams Predictions:
1. Concordia Lutheran
2. Homestead
3. Columbia City
4. Warsaw
5. Carroll (FW)
6. East Noble
7. Northrop
8. Bishop Dwenger
9. Huntington North
10. Norwell
11. Plymouth
12. Prairie Heights
13. West Noble
14. Yorktown
15. Manchester
16. Leo
17. Jay County
18. Bluffton
19. Adams Central
20. Snider
21. Wapahani
22. Marion
23. Oak Hill
24. Frankton
25. Mississinewa
Girls Team Commentary
In the Mix to Win:
* Concordia Lutheran- The Cadets looked amazing at sectional, averaging 18:32 for their top 5 runners. They should comfortably win the regional and they could very well challenge for the state team title next weekend. Their top 4 runners are all ranked in the top 12 for this race.
In Good Position to Qualify for State:
* Homestead- The defending state champions sat some runners out at sectional. They should race back at full strength this week and should be comfortable as the 2nd place team. They could have 4 runners in the top 20 in this race.
* Columbia City- The Eagles have a great frontrunner in Leitch, and Myers and Lickey have developed in to strong 2-3 runners. With a good team race, Columbia City should finish 3rd and stay out of the bubble chaos that will take place behind them.
On the Bubble:
* Warsaw- Rastrelli is a strong frontrunner and Warsaw has good depth. They are technically on the bubble, but they are in a positive position heading into Saturday.
* Carroll (FW)- The Chargers won the New Haven Regional, but they (uncharacteristically) lack an elite frontrunner this year. They likely will not have anyone in the top 20 Saturday, but they could put their entire top 5 within the next 30-40 spots after that.
* East Noble- Chloe Gibson is back at just the right time. The Knights did not look like a state meet team throughout much of September, but they sure looked good at sectional. They are squarely on the bubble. They have qualified for the past 3 state meets, so this is a squad that knows how to handle the pressures of the big stage.
* Northrop- The Bruins have not qualified for state meet in 16 years, and with 3 seniors in their top 5 this might be their best shot to break that streak. Junior Maren Wilson should be an individual qualifier, if the team cannot advance.
* Bishop Dwenger- This is the best Dwenger team since 2019, led by senior Emily Bruns. They need big races from their 4-5 if they are going to make a push for a top 5 team finish.
Boys Individual Predictions:
1. Jackson Gackenheimer, 11, Warsaw
2. Andrew Strong, 11, Eastside
3. Zander Ritenour, 10, Lakewood Park Christian
4. Cooper Knoblauch, 11, Homestead
5. Gavin Good, 12, Columbia City
6. Bryan Garcia, 11, New Haven
7. Evan McMahon, 12, Homestead
8. Memphis Martin, 10, Lakeland
9. Aiden Waugh, 12, Homestead
10. Mike Herrington, 12, Marion
11. Wyatt Turner, 10, Yorktown
12. Isaiah Cordes, 11, Wabash
13. Trevor Schwartz, 12, Adams Central
14. Jace Trevino, 10, Homestead
15. Tyler Minmaugh, 12, Warsaw
16. Will Schlegel, 12, Concordia Lutheran
17. Levi Johns, 12, Bluffton
18. Cooper Enyeart, 12, Angola
19. Daniel Mullett, 12, Columbia City
20. Jonas Church, 12, Wabash
How the Boys Individual Race Might Unfold
Jackson Gackenheimer is the individual favorite, but this race will not be a runaway. Andrew Strong looked great in his win at West Noble last week, as did Cooper Knoblauch in his win on this Huntington course. There are several other sub-16:00 runners in this field.
There will likely be a lead pack of 6 or 7 guys who will come through 2 miles together in under 10 minutes. I would look for Gackenheimer to try to stretch things out between the 2 mile and 4K mark to try to open things up. Expect for the final winning margin to be around 5-10 seconds.
Boys Teams Predictions:
1. Homestead
2. Warsaw
3. Carroll (FW)
4. Wabash
5. Yorktown
6. Columbia City
7. Concordia Lutheran
8. Bluffton
9. Angola
10. West Noble
11. Wapahani
12. Marion
13. Bishop Dwenger
14. Lakewood Park Christian
15. Manchester
16. New Haven
17. Northrop
18. Bellmont
19. Central Noble
20. Culver Academies
21. Oak Hill
22. South Adams
23. Norwell
24. Muncie Central
25. Wes-Del
Boys Team Commentary
In the Mix to Win:
* Homestead- This might be the best team in school history. They looked outstanding all season. They have 4 runners ranked in the top 15 in this meet, with Cooper Knoblauch having a breakout junior year. Seniors Evan McMahon and Aiden Waugh will also be in the lead pack. They are the clear favorites; it would be a big surprise if they did not win this race.
In Good Position to Qualify for State:
* Warsaw- The Tigers have qualified for the last 4 state meets and this year should be 5 in a row. Jackson Gackenheimer is an elite frontrunner, and he is favored to win this race. Senior Tyler Minmaugh is a solid 2nd runner. They likely cannot match up with Homestead at the 3-4 spots, but they are strong enough that they should easily advance as the second place team.
On the Bubble:
* Carroll (FW)- The Chargers looked strong, winning the West Noble Sectional without frontrunning senior Aidan Borbiev. If Borbiev returns and races well, Carroll should advance. This is a team that could put all 5 scorers in the 16s.
* Wabash- The Apaches are looking for back-to-back state meets. Junior Isaiah Cordes is coming off a great sectional race. Senior Jonas Church is also a strong frontrunner. Wabash is strong up front, if their 4-5 runners race well they should punch another ticket to Terre Haute.
* Yorktown- Even though they won their sectional, frontrunner Wyatt Turner ran almost a minute slower than usual. If he races back up to potential, this team is squarely on the bubble. They have momentum, coming in as the Marion Sectional champions.
* Columbia City- The Eagles were 6th at regional in 2023, missing advancing to state by 5 points. They are hoping for a different outcome this year. Senior Gavin Good has been a great frontrunner. Classmate Daniel Mullett has been running very well. They are right on the bubble again.
* Concordia Lutheran- The Cadets rely heavily on their frontrunners Will Schlegel and Hunter Panning. They need a great overall team race to crack the top 5, but this is a well-coached team so expect them to be ready for Saturday.
* Bluffton- This is the bottom of the bubble. Senior Levi Johns could be an individual state qualifier. Bluffton’s only state qualifying team was 55 years ago in 1969. This would be a Cinderella team if they could pull off a top 5 finish.
EVANSVILLE MATER DEI REGIONAL PREVIEWS:
Girls Individual Predictions:
1. Carys Glen-Jones, 12, Columbus North
2. Lexi Kollbaum, 10, Bloomington South
3. Hannah Crain, 11, Edgewood
4. Maddie Graber, 11, Southridge
5. Mallory Watt, 11, Princeton
6. Noel Nifong, 9, Floyd Central
7. Adeline Shultz, 10, Floyd Central
8. Monica Lorey, 12, Jasper
9. Laura Barco, 11, Martinsville
10. Xavery Wiseman, 12, Pike Central
11. Kyleigh Wolf, 12, Columbus North
12. Ester Crane, 11, Eastern (Greene)
13. Aurelia Martoglio, 11, Bloomington South
14. Lilyanna Blais, 12, Eastern (Greene)
15. Mary Asplund, 10, Bloomington South
16. Tristan Works, 10, Columbus North
17. Emma Lowther, 10, Columbus North
18. Emma Campbell, 10, Floyd Central
19. Macy Eaton, 12, Columbus North
20. Jasmine Martoglio, 11, Bloomington South
How the Girls Individual Race Might Unfold
* This is one of the more open regionals individually. Columbus North senior Carys Glen-Jones
is probably the favorite based on the results all season. Edgewood junior Hannah Crain and
Bloomington South sophomore Lexi Kollbaum will likely be at the very front of the race. A
surprise winner could emerge from this regional, though that top trio has separated a good
amount in the first two months of the season.
Girls Teams Predictions:
1. Columbus North
2. Bloomington South
3. Floyd Central
4. Bloomington North
5. Jasper
6. Edgewood
7. Corydon
8. Eastern (Greene)
9. Pike Central
10. Castle
11. Evansville Mater Dei
12. Bedford North Lawrence
13. Evansville Memorial
14. Seymour
15. Princeton
16. Perry Central
17. Silver Creek
18. Barr-Reeve
19. Martinsville
20. Tell City
21. Borden
22. Gibson Southern
23. Jennings County
24. Springs Valley
25. Mitchell
Girls Team Commentary
In the Mix to Win:
* Columbus North - The Bull Dogs are the runaway favorite here and should be in range to finish
on the podium next week. North has an unmatched combination of frontrunning and depth; the
Dogs could land all seven runners in the top 20 this weekend.
In Good Position to Qualify for State:
* Bloomington South - The Panthers are more of a top-ten team at the state meet, potentially.
South is much improved after the return of some key runners and should easily advance here
with a second-place finish.
* Floyd Central - The Highlanders are a lock, very likely to finish third. This is a very young
team with only five scorers in their freshman or sophomore year. Noel Nifong and Adeline
Shultz give Floyd great frontrunning to pair with excellent depth.
On the Bubble:
* Bloomington North - The Cougars have been the surprise team in this regional. Excellent
improvement across the board without the benefit of a talented newcomer should land North a
state meet berth. The Cougars were fourth in the mock meet with a 75-point gap back to sixth
place.
* Edgewood - The Mustangs are holding onto hope of advancing, but based on sectional
performances there is a sizable gap to erase in order to make that happen. More likely, junior
Hannah Crain advances as an individual, though this is a young team with three freshmen in the
top seven that will return six next fall.
* Jasper - The Wildcats should be solidly in the state meet field again. Senior Monica Lorey
gives Jasper frontrunning at the regional level, and the mock meet projects the ‘Cats in the top
five comfortably despite a couple of shaky races last weekend at the sectional.
Boys Individual Predictions:
1. Jackson Nolan, 12, Evansville Reitz
2. Calvin Seitz, 10, Jasper
3. Jacob Mitchell, 11, Bloomington North
4. Neal White, 12, Columbus North
5. Caleb Webb, 12, Bloomington North
6. Caelan D’Onofrio, 11, Bloomington North
7. Luca Cirrincione, 12, Floyd Central
8. Kraedyn Young, 12, Jennings County
9. Zane Meyer, 12, Edgewood
10. Jace Works, 11, Columbus North
11. Jackson Klinger, 12, Edgewood
12. Carson Brown, 12, Springs Valley
13. Carter Zieren, 10, Evansville Reitz
14. Shane Ratliff, 12, Brownstown Central
15. Chance Ratliff, 12, Brownstown Central
16. Noah Nifong, 12, Floyd Central
17. Logan Vanzant, 11, Columbus North
18. Jack Holden, 12, Bloomington North
19. Caleb Winders, 11, Bloomington North
20. Sawyer Mossberger, 12, Evansville Reitz
How the Boys Individual Race Might Unfold
* Jackson Nolan of Evansville Reitz is probably a slight favorite here. He cruised through the
sectional round to lead a pack of teammates but has been the most consistent of anyone in this
regional. Jasper sophomore Calvin Seitz and Columbus North senior Neal White have been a
little more up and down this fall but could definitely challenge for the win. The Bloomington
North trio of Jacob Mitchell, Caelan D’Onofrio and Caleb Webb are all probable All-Staters next
week capable of winning individually this week.
Boys Teams Predictions:
1. Bloomington North
2. Columbus North
3. Evansville Reitz
4. Floyd Central
5. Edgewood
6. Bloomington South
7. Jasper
8. Evansville Memorial
9. Castle
10. Silver Creek
11. Barr-Reeve
12. Jennings County
13. New Albany
14. Bedford North Lawrence
15. Corydon Central
16. Brownstown Central
17. Signature
18. South Knox
19. Seymour
20. Princeton
21. Perry Central
22. Springs Valley
23. Orleans
24. Columbus East
25. Tell City
Boys Team Commentary
In the Mix to Win:
* Bloomington North - The Cougars won the Nike Twilight over a field that included all of the
state’s best teams. They have the frontrunning and depth to beat any team in Indiana in any size
of a field. They are the state title favorite until further notice.
* Columbus North - The Bull Dogs have been solid all year; this is the state’s deepest team, and
senior Neal White gives North respectable frontrunning. The Dogs were very close to
Bloomington North at the Nike Twilight meet and avenged an earlier loss to Brownsburg.
*Evansville Reitz - The Panthers are more of a podium hopeful than a state title contender,
though perfect races through the lineup could yield a big upset of the field next week.
Regardless, Reitz will easily advance to Terre Haute.
On the Bubble:
* Bloomington South - The Panthers have rebuilt their roster quickly and are in contention for
another trip to Terre Haute. South was fifth in the mock regional based on sectional
performances from inccstats.com, six points ahead of sixth place.
* Castle - The Knights are in range of qualifying after the best meet of the season in the sectional
round. Castle will be playing catch-up in the scores with no frontrunner and may be one runner
short of advancing. Castle was seventh in the mock meet based on sectional performances, 17
back from fifth.
* Edgewood - The Mustangs might be the team most likely of all of these contenders to advance,
though it is no guarantee. The frontrunning duo of Meyer and Klinger gives Edgewood quite a
cushion, making the job easier on the other scorers.
* Evansville Memorial - The Knights have been lurking all season after big improvements from
their scorers and the emergence of sophomore Landon Hartman. Still, Memorial was more than
seventy back from advancing in the mock meet so they’ll need chaos among the other contenders
to get to Terre Haute next week.
* Floyd Central - The Highlanders have stumbled a bit the last few weeks after a great start to the
season. Seniors Luca Cirrincione and Noah Nifong get Floyd off to a good start. The ‘Landers
essentially control their own destiny; a solid race should get them into the top five and back to
state. Floyd was sixth in the mock meet, negligible number of points behind fifth.
* Jasper - The Wildcats should score four thanks to super sophomore Calvin Seitz who could win
individually. Jasper’s depth may not be there to make a serious push, but Incsstats does give the
‘Cats a 9.3% chance to advance to the state finals.
SHELBYVILLE REGIONAL PREVIEWS:
Girls Individual Predictions:
Libby Dowty, 11, Indian Creek
Ava Jarrell, 12, Pendleton Heights
Anya Zoeller, 9, Pendleton Heights
Lily Rollings, 11, Greenwood
Elizabeth Butler, 12, Hamilton Southeastern
Alivia Lozier, 10, Westfield
Callie Bentley, 11, East Central
Riley Flynn, 12, Noblesville
Savanna Miller, 12, Franklin Central
Ansley Applegate, 11, Noblesville
Lena Shipp, 10, Whiteland
Catey Campbell, 12, Hamilton Southeastern
Natalie Vandesteene, 9, Franklin Central
Bella Murch, 12, Fishers
Dakota Miller, 12, Franklin Central
Brinkley Cooper, 12, Noblesville
Josie Kinnaman, 10, Greenfield Central
Caitlin Hawkins, 9, Fishers
Jenna Weiler, 10, East Central
Jayde Stamm, 10, Noblesville
How the girls individual race might unfold: Defending IHSAA state champion Libby Dowty will dictate how this race goes early on. Pendleton Heights' Ava Jarrell might attempt to race with Dowty, particularly if the pace is moderate. Those two probably clear the field by a good margin by the 2 mile mark. The chase pack could be large (6-8) and should be interesting as it is made up of a number of similarly spectacular athletes.
Girls Team Predictions:
Noblesville
Franklin Central
Hamilton Southeastern
Westfield
East Central
Pendleton Heights
Fishers
Roncalli
Batesville
Whiteland
Center Grove
Cathedral
Indian Creek
Greenfield Central
Mt Vernon
New Palestine
Perry Meridian
Southwestern Hanover
New Castle
Charlestown
South Dearborn
Seton Catholic
Richmond
Switzerland County
Madison
Girls Team Commentary:
In the Mix to Win=
-Noblesville: Fresh off of a strong sectional showing, the Millers should be favored to win the regional. They had all 7 under 20 minutes and have the necessary front-running to put them in a great spot to win.
-Franklin Central: The Flashes dominated their sectional and seemed poised to give Noblesville all they can handle. Like Noblesville, FC is deep and has a formidable top 3 that can match Noblesville.
In a Good Position to Qualify for State=
-Hamilton Southeastern: The Royals had their best showing of the season at the sectional and have the necessary pieces to be a state qualifying team. A return to the lineup from sophomore Annissa Lammie back into their lineup after missing most of the season with an injury could add even more depth.
-Westfield: This very young squad (3 freshmen and 3 sophomores ran for them at the sectional) has been very consistent all year. Alivia Lozier gives them a strong front-runner and they have solid depth through 7.
On the Bubble=
-East Central: The Trojans qualified for the state meet 2 years ago and this year they have great chance to get back to Terre Haute. Their strength is their front 2. While they aren't a super deep team, they do have an improving freshman in their top 5 and they have regional experience with their others.
-Pendleton Heights: This is one of the more interesting teams to follow as they have perhaps the best top duo in the entire state...both of whom should be in the top 5 in this race. Can their 3-5 close the gap? They looked the part at the sectional.
-Fishers: A solid sectional performance gives the Tigers a good chance to punch their ticket to Terre Haute. Bella Murch has been on a recent tear and she is joined by Caitlin Hawkins to form a great top 2. If their 3-5 can move up they have a great chance to advance.
-Roncalli: With Charlie Fletter back in their lineup, Roncalli has a strong front three. Their fourth runner at the sectional ran great giving the Royals hope to advance to Terre Haute.
Boys Individual Predictions:
Sam Quagliaroli, 12, Fishers
John Libs, 11, Noblesville
Evan Farmer, 12, Franklin Central
Liam Powers, 11, Hamilton Southeastern
Ahmed Saleh, 12, Mt Vernon
Banner Barnes, 10, Noblesville
Simon Nickelson, 11, Lapel
Colton Watson, 9, Whiteland
Nate Thomas, 11, Fishers
Nicolas Vega, 12, Hamilton Southeastern
Isaiah Vos, 9, Noblesville
Benson Davis, 12, Pendleton Heights
Jack Strong, 12, Noblesville
Justin Reedus, Franklin Central
Ty Connor, 12, Westfield
Xaiden Jenson, 12, Mt Vernon
Luke Moster, 12, Guerin Catholic
Luke Neibert, 12, Indian Creek
Sam Vaught, 12, Roncalli
Isaac Smith, 10, Hamilton Southeastern
How the Boys Individual Race May Unfold:
Like the girls race, there is a favorite here in Sam Quagliaroli. The Fishers senior has been laser focused all year and he could gap this field. Many of the contenders after him are on teams vying for state qualifying spots so who finishes in the top 10 could greatly impact the team title as well as the teams moving on. Can Quagliaroli break 15:00?
Boys Team Predictions:
Fishers
Noblesville
Hamilton Southeastern
Mt Vernon
Franklin Central
Westfield
Center Grove
Lawrence North
Indian Creek
Whiteland
Guerin Catholic
Greenfield Central
Franklin Community
Roncalli
Batesville
Madison
New Palestine
Rushville
East Central
Richmond
Switzerland County
Austin
Milan
Crothersville
Hagerstown
Boys Team Commentary=
In the Mix To Win:
-Fishers: This is a deep, well-coached team with the top individual runner in this field. If they are the favorite though, it isn't by much. They won the sectional and they have a great history of finishing seasons well. Depth is likely to play a part in who wins, but are they the deepest of the teams with a chance to win the big trophy?
-Noblesville: The Millers might be a deeper team than Fishers and they certainly have the front running to match up well with Fishers' top 3. The question here is availability. Ronnie Neal and Isaiah Vos did not race at the sectional. Would Noblesville had won their sectional with them? We'll never know but if they are available and healthy Noblesville could emerge victorious.
-Hamilton Southeaster: Lurking just behind their Hamilton County foes are the Royals. Another deep team (7 under 16:30 at the sectional), they could sneak up and grab the title if Fishers or Noblesville falter.
In a Good Position to Qualify:
-Mt Vernon: After winning their own sectional by virtue of a 6th runner tie-breaker, Mt Vernon has momentum heading into Saturday. They have the necessary pieces to punch their ticket to Terre Haute (strong front-runner, good pack, good depth) and they've been consistent all season long.
-Franklin Central: We're guessing that they're going to run inspired after losing the sectional to Mt Vernon on a tie-breaker. They actually ran 2 seconds faster than Mt Vernon if you add up each team's top 5 runners.
On the Bubble:
-Westfield: The Shamrocks have had an awesome season and have a great chance for their season to end at the state finals. Their top 3 are all seniors and that is a great starting point if you want to pull off an upset and place in the top 3. They are capable.
-Center Grove: This is a proud program that once again finds themselves with a chance to advance to the state meet. They are going to need their pack to be tightly knit as they don't have a top 10 type of individual. If they can have a 1-5 compression under 20 seconds they have a shot.
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