October 24th, 2013 – Boys Brown County Semi-State Preview

By: Steve Mounts

Although 5 schools are making their first semistate appearance in recent memory, there are a lot of familiar names comprising the field at Brown County in 2013.  Thirteen of the twenty schools were here last year, and a good number of seniors will have run all 4 years on the Eagle Park course.  What’s a bit different this year is that 4 schools have completely separated themselves as the cream of the crop team-score-wise.  The champion and runner-up team scores should be well-lower than we’ve seen here in at least 5 years, and the 4th place score could be nearly 80 points less than has occurred the previous 3 years.  Conversely, the team scores in 2013 for the final advancing spot or two will be extremely higher than the 207-ish range for 6th/7th place from 2008-2012 which will make it wide open and between all of 6-ish teams for the last 2 state-qualifying spots.  Here’s a team-by-team look at this year’s field, where the winning individual time has been approximately 15:32 over the last few years (excl bad-weather ’09) on a course that typically runs the fastest of Indiana’s 4 semistate courses.

 

Team Score Projected Standings and Scores:

  1. Columbus North — 2,4,6,11,14 [30][41] = 37    Bull Dogs posted a perfect score at Regionals and will set themselves up for another state championship run next week.  Seth Williams’ recent elevation to a new level makes CN stronger than they’ve been all year, and with lots of depth have been able to rest some keys guys periodically who will need to run well a week from Sat.  Seniors Andy Carr and Kaden Eaton will lead the way to CN’s 7th consecutive appearance at State.
  2. Bloomington South — 1,3,9,19,21 [24][31] = 53   BHSS has been close on a number of occasions to CN, beating them once, but it’s shaping up as though the 2 top teams will remain even thru 3 runners but BHSS will lose a few too many points at the #4/5 spots to win the championship.  Still, this highly ranked team lead by projected winner Kyle Burks along with Anthony Williams and Evan Franklin will set its sights on a podium-performance at Terre Haute next Saturday
  3. Terre Haute South — 7,8,10,25,39 [40][53] = 89   Braves won’t be in contention to win the meet, but 3 superb top scorers should pave the way for a good score next week at state in their hometown.  Hanging onto 3rd here would be a good result.  Riley Stohler and Spencer Danielson have really stepped up of late and Jackson Bertoli looks to rebound from a tough Regionals route & give THS its 4th straight State showing
  4. Bloomington North — 5,15,20,22,29 [34][38] = 91  BHSN did not have their #2-3 guy in the lineup Sat. in a meet that appeared winnable over THS, thus came up a few points short.  Again this wk they should be able to make a 3rd place run.  Griffin Tichenor has become one of the semistate’s premier runners while Ryan Nephew, Fergus Arthur, & Harrison Streib also are all capable of posting low scores for this team looking to make its 27th state finals appearance in school history.                                                                          Now things start to get really dicey ………………………………………………………………………………………….
  5. Seymour — 23,42,52,68.89 [91] [110] = 274   These points assume #2 guy Daniel Hauersparger returns to the lineup at about 70% and the 4th team spot, though he didn’t run Sectionals or Regionals.  With him out of the lineup add 22 pts to the Owls score.  Jack Tormoehlen continues to run fairly well for the lead team slot, but the other lineup slots have slid rather dramatically over the last 3 weeks, making what was once a for-sure state advancement into being very questionable.  What helps Seymour is that most of the other contending teams seem off their games as well.
  6. North Harrison — 18,44,48,79,90 [95][108] = 279  The mid-season transfer and varsity-eligibility determination of Mike White has made the Cougars a serious contender.  However they’ve also been bit by injuries when #2 Curtis Wetzel hurt his foot at Sectionals.  I hear Wetzel will run on Saturday and these point projections have him at about 90% effectiveness – if he’s 100% then NH could advance with some cushion.  Daniel Fleace continues to improve as a solid frontrunner and some adequate younger guys have been developed at the #4-7 slots improving their hopes to rebound from 2012 being their first year not in the state finals since 2007.
  7. Martinsville — 16,33,65,86,87 [117][119] = 287   Artesians overnight viagra were about the only team in contention that had a strong meet at Regionals.  Nick Firsich sat out Sectionals but has been an improving force at #1 and Aaron Tincher provides a solid #2 backup.  Their #3-4 have tailed off a bit since making mid-season debuts but #5 has become more effective.  Though their #6-7 appear too far off to affect their own score at all, any pushing from them over other contenders, or any breakout performances from any of the #3-5 give Martinsville a great chance to be top 6 for the third time in five years.
  8. South Knox — 17,43,66,74,97 [100][116] = 297   I had this team slightly in the top 6 after Sectionals but a somewhat flat Regional meet with an upset loss perhaps hurts their chances for a first-ever state meet appearance.   SK mirrors NH and Mart very closely through most of the lineup thus Andrew Staggs at #1 needs to match Firsich and Fleace, while #2 Alex Weber needs to be very close to Tincher and White.  The rest of the Spartan pack is right there where they need to be and if anybody in the 60th-100th place range can over-achieve by 5-10 places, SK stands a very reasonable chance to hit top 6 as one of the smallest schools in the field.
  9. Floyd Central — 36,46,59,75,83 [99][129] = 299  This team appears to either be struggling to hang on, or holding something back, as it’s been since the Hoosier Hills Conf meet 3 Saturdays ago that the Highlanders looked state finals-type good.  They won’t have anyone post a real low score, though #1 Alec Heitz has had a nice season.  If anyone normally in the top 6 has an off-day, or actually a continuation of their Sectionals/Regionals times, it doesn’t look very good for FC.
  10. Terre Haute North — 27,47,76,77,78 [81][85] = 305  Similar to FC, THN hasn’t looked particularly good for awhile now.  Maybe they’re lurking back for a surprise meet here with no targets on them, as their #2-5 ran together at below-top pace at Regionals.  Peter Davis should post a reasonably low score at #1, and THN has the best #5/6/7 (and #8/9/10 for that matter) guys of any team in bubble-contention but that depth won’t matter if they have to count 3 scores over 75.                                                                               The rest of the pack ………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
  11. Borden — 12,57,62,80,120 [134][137] = 331  Braves are probably disappointed to be pegged in this slot after what earlier in the season looked promising for a much higher standing.  This will be their 17th meet of the season without ever resting any of their top 5 and it appears that’s taken its toll as most of the lineup has shown little improvement since early Sept.  Borden should however easily advance #1 Julien Magallanes for the tiny school’s second-ever appearance with a runner at State.
  12. Evansville North — 28,49,58,92,114 [124][128] = 341  North was a surprise Regional winner over S.Knox last Saturday but the gap between theirs and SK’s #4 and #5 will be more prominent in the larger field this week.  Josh Backes has emerged as a solid #1 and contender for individual advancement, but it would take a huge effort from all 5 guys for the Huskies to make their 3rd straight trip to Lavern Gibson.
  13. Tell City — 55,60,64,73,105 [115][121] = 357   Probably the best team from this smallish school since a State Finals appearance 15 years ago.  Twins Caleb and Cameron Sherry lead the way, and if any 2-3 guys can run beyond what they have been, a finish near the top 10 isn’t out of the question for the Marksmen.
  14. Northview — 32,37,71,96,123 [127][133] = 359  Knights emerged from what looked like a tight battle for the last spot out of Bedford even beating THN in the process.  Nic Yocum caps off a very good career here while #2 Cam Trout and others on a senior-laden team enjoy their own first Semistate appearance
  15. Evansville Reitz — 13,56,72,109,138 [139][140] = 388  A team with virtually no depth at all, the Panthers will try to ride the performances of their top 3 to beat a few teams.  Adam Guth at #1 should post a low score on his way to an individual advancement, and their #2 and #3 will try to battle pesky injuries as well.  Though they’ll likely have the last 3 finishing runners on the course meaning they’ll count the maximum possible 138 score, teams that often beat Reitz will find their own #5-7 runners closer to that #138 mark since there will be fewer runners in that 19:30 time-range as the competition gets better
  16. Evansville Memorial — 35,63,93,98,103 [104][113] = 392  Memorial was much closer to winning the Pike Central Regional than anyone expected, finishing 3rd by just 13 pts, but lack of enough firepower near the front packs will make a good score hard to attain this week.  First-year runner soph Nathaniel Schadler leads the way on what has become a fairly deep team.  They’ll try to get another victory over city-rival Reitz and perhaps make at run at North as well.
  17. Brownstown Central — 26,50,88,111,118 [130][135] = 393  Another school with its best team in quite awhile, BC hopes Ryan Franklin can achieve a low enough score on the front end to offset some likely high scores on the back end and perhaps advance himself to State.  They’ve survived close calls at Sectionals and Regionals by getting solid improvement from their #3 slot.
  18. Gibson Southern — 45,51,82,94,122 [126][131]  = 394  Titans hope 2 moderate scores from Ethan Mounts and Hayden Baehl who have battled back and forth most of the year will be enough to beat some teams here.  The first career Semistate appearance for any of the roster is a nice reward for another senior-laden team, which has been inconsistent at the #5 slot but has found that one of their #5-7 guys has always stepped up with a race good enough to be previously victorious over other Evansville schools in this field.
  19. Columbus East — 54,67,70,84,125 [132][136] = 400  Lack of any front-runners will hurt the Olympian chances to post much of a team score, but if none of their #1-4 guys fall too far back, they could finish 2-3 spots higher than this.  This is a much better team than CE was expected to have with this roster at the beginning of the season and only loses one contributor for next year.
  20. Jasper — 61,69,101,102,106 [107][112] = 439   Jasper should be tightly packed, just too far back to be between many other teams’ runners.  A rather surprise entrant here after Perry Central was missing their #3 at Regionals, the Wildcats rely on youth in Kyle Knies and Cale Kilian and hope this year’s experience will benefit in future years when the team could score better.  They do own an earlier win over Gibson Southern

INDIVIDUALS

Most names are mentioned above or below, but the top 15 placers are projected as follows:

  1. Kyle Burks, senior (Bloomington South)
  2. Andy Carr, senior (Columbus North)
  3. Anthony Willaims, junior (Bloomington South)
  4. Kaden Eaton, senior (Columbus North)
  5. Griffin Tichenor, junior (Bloomington North)
  6. Seth Williams, junior (Columbus North
  7. Jackson Bertoli, senior (Terre Haute South)
  8. Riley Stohler, senior (Terre Haute South)
  9. Evan Franklin, sophomore (Bloomington South)
  10. Jarit Perkins, sophomore (Barr-Reeve)
  11. Spencer Danielson, junior (Terre Haute South)
  12. Chase Ballard, junior (Columbus North)
  13. Brogan Armand, junior (Evansville Harrison)
  14. Julien Magallanes, sophomore (Borden)
  15. Adam Guth, senior (Evansville Reitz)

Individuals Advancing to State (10 on non-advancing teams, assume above 6 teams advance)

[Last 5 years the avg cutoff would’ve been approx 22nd place and a time of approx 16:21.5)

 

LOCKS:

  • Jarit Perkins (Barr-Reeve)
  • Brogan Armand (Evansville Harrison)
  • Julien Magallanes (Borden)

LIKELY:

  • Adam Guth (Evansville Reitz)
  • Quentin Pierce (Castle)
  • Nick Firsich (Martinsville)
  • Andrew Staggs (South Knox)

3 of these 8:

  • Jonah Woods (Jennings County)
  • Jesse Stanley (Boonville)
  • Ryan Franklin (Brownstown Central)
  • Aaron Pierrard (Perry Central)
  • Peter Davis (Terre Haute North)
  • Josh Backes (Evansville North)
  • Jacob Hedrick (Henryville)
  • Nic Yocum (Northview)

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