Carmel Boys Semi State Preview
By: Coach Drake Sterling
Individuals:
1. Futsum Zeinasellasie - If you listened to his post-race interview with Indy Sports Nation, Futsum said that he would take Semi-State easy. Frankly, thats all he needs to do to win this one.
The Chase Pack
2. Hale O'Herren - Running at a very high level right now. The matchup between he and Connor Martin was an exciting one to watch play out at the Brebuef regional. Hale won but it could have went either way. Hale said in his post race that he loves the Northview course and we know from Martin's track record there that he loves it as well. The Semi-State should be no different.
3. Connor Martin - Its just a matter of who shows up this Saturday. On a good day, he is a legit contender for the #2 spot at state in my opinion. He's got trememdous upside and is a very smart runner. It will be a question of whether he wants to go for it or save it for Terre Haute
4. Scott Vicenzi - Scott's coming in as a sort of darkhorse Saturday considering his cupcake schedule thus far through the Tournament. I think he is a top 4 lock. The question will be if he remembers how to run with the big boys. If he is up to the competition, he can go number 2.
The Rest of the Top 10.
5. Tom Ohlman - In my opinion, this pack is just a few steps behind the top 4 studs. They could prove me wrong though. Olhman is really coming along nicely and has taken over front running duties for the greyhounds it appears.
6. Tate Scheinbein - Maybe Im just too high on the sophomore from Union County but at least we FINALLY get to see him race the big boys! Tate has to be one of the most overlooked top 10 contenders in the state. All hes done is consistently thrown down sub 16 performace despite running against sub-par competition mostly.
7. Chris Walden - If theres one thing Ive learned this season, its not to count out the Carmel guys. Their top 2 are legit and look to be top 10 locks.
8. Evan Scruton - Speaking of cupcake schedules...CN has made the competition look like a Carmel JV race throughout the beginning of the post-season. You cant argue with course records though, and Scruton and his teamate earned one of those last week at regional.
9. Andrew Deihn - What a story! The sophomore sensation was running 19:20 last season! I dont know whats in the water down in Columbus but Deihn has shown he is an unbelievably hard worker this season.
10. Jason Crist - The number 10 position belongs to Crist off of potential only. Im not sure if it has been the flu or what lately but the results havent quite been there. He has had an up and down season. I have no idea what to expect in Carmel this weekend.
The Contenders
11. Gabe Ocasio - What else would you expect from the Columbus North Globetrotters this season. Another consistent effort from the front pack.
12. Traishaun Johnson - This is his chance to advance. All season Traishaun has been consistently on the #15 bubble. If he can just get this Carmel Semi-State burden off his shoulders, I think he will be an all-state athlete.
13. Connor Geshay - He and Filimon will be running smart as always and helping to pull North Central to Terre Haute.
14. Filimon Adhanom - The potential and consistency are there for he and Geshay to lead North Central to a semi-state title. The question will always be #4 and #5.
15. Jason Hoard - Youve got to love it when an individual grabs the #15 spot. The coaches crunching numbers on the sideline. Four different people have four different places. Hoard is in though in my opinion. The losses of Millares and Ricker have solidified that.
On the Outside Looking in.
16. Ryan Ferguson - These next 7 could go anyway. I like where Fergusons heading though. After battling the flu for a week, he came out at sectionals with an extremely impressive showing. He wasnt ready for the competition at Regional though and struggled. Every race has been a learning experience for the front running Miller. Hes got all-state potential if he realizes it though.
17. Kent Garrett - And the Fairy-tale story comes to an end for the Guerin Catholic Phenom. I hate to see it end but I just dont see sub 15:50 potential out of Kent right now and unfortunately, everyone else in front of him has it. I love the sophomores hunger and toughness. Someday he will be a top 15 runner in the state. I would love to see him prove me wrong though.
18. Joe Ebling - I have been waiting all season for the Royal Leader to bust out and run sub 15:50 but it just hasnt happened. I think hes got the potential but none-the-less, he will lead the Royals to Terre Haute.
19. Cody Marowski - The Millers only Senior can straight up battle. Injuries have slowed down what could have been an all-state season but the chip on his shoulder remains. I expect nothing less than a top 20 finish out of Marowski.
20. Christopher Kelsey - CN putting 4 in the top 20 has looked inevitable all season long and Kelsey should be in the mix.
21. Colin Ginebaugh - Noblesville may not have any front runners but they can hurt you with their 1-5. On a good day, they could all be top 25. Unfortunately that wont be enough to win the Carmel Semi State.
22. Dan Porter - The sickness looks to have subsided and Porter is back. Enough of the Good Porter/Bad Porter debate. When he's healthy, he can race.
23. Sam Berger - The sophomore has done nothing but improve as the season has progressed. He shouldnt need a top 15 placing to be racing on Lavern Gibson next week.
24. Josh Roche - Under the radar all season until he busted out at the Brebuef Regional. I dont think he can contend for a top 15 finish. But top 25 is not out of the question.
25. Andrew Beiringer - The Bulldog domination finally comes to an end much to the relief of the competition. Oh wait... the 6 and 7 wont be far behind.
The Teams:
The Favorite
1. Columbus North - The only thing that can stop them is themselves.
Goin Dancin'!
2. Carmel - We never should have doubted the Greyhounds. They continue to look towards a late October peak and have put distance on the rest of the teams in the semi-state behind the strong running of Gomez and Brunk.
3. Noblesville - Will they ever put together a race where all 5 of their runners reach their potential? If anyone in their top 5 dogs it, they can slip to the 6 spot. I dont think that will happen though.
4. North Central - I dont know whats wrong with Toumey, but North Central is feeling his absence. Im hoping its the flu and they can get back in contention by October 31st.
5. Hamilton Southeastern - HSE is a scary team. I still think that Ebling has all state potential and Troy Reeder just ran 16:20 as a Freshman! The Royals cant let the big meet get in their heads because the potential to have 5 under 16:20 is there.
6. Zionsville - The 5/6 spot will be a dog fight between the Eagles and the Royals. They took a step backwards at Regional. It doesnt really matter though. The top 6 are locked in my opinion.
Maybe next year...
7. Ben Davis - This will be their strongest showing in years. Unfortunately, you cant get out of the Carmel Semi-State with a scorer over 17 min, let alone two of them.
8. Warren Central - WC took a step back at Regional as well. The team has a great 1-5 split but Im not sure if they will be able to make up the gap from BD's 1/2 punch.
9. Franklin Central - A dissapointing end to the season will prove to be a learning experience for the young Flashes. I only hope that Crist can advance as an individual.
10. Center Grove - Austin Mudd has enjoyed his ups and downs this season but the quality of athlete just isnt there for the team to find a way to Terre Haute.