4x800
It works out great for me that one of my favorite events kicks off the day on the track.  A lot of interesting things happened last week, which is highlighted by teams not running fast times, and instead cruising to victory.  Fort Wayne Snider is the best example of that, as I picked them last week to be the favorites, but they cruised to an 8 flat win in their regional and now are in the “warm” heat.  They should still score out of this heat, but it is a big challenge to win out of it.  However, there is still a lot of potential in that heat, which makes it possible that a few teams could break away and possibly put a mark out there that the “hot” heat may not run.  Think, if Carmel runs all their people on the relay (unlikely in my prediction), and then Westfield and Columbus North run hot, not to mention plenty of other sub-8 teams in the line up, it could push Snider to be fast enough.
However, they are not there, and Ben Davis laid down a statement at the stacked North Central regional in this event.  Amanuel Medhane (Ben Davis) has been extremely under-rated, but has been running very consistant all season.  He can hang with the best in the state, and could seal a victory if his teammates give it to him in position to do something.  Lawrence Central was another favorite early on, and still will be in the mix.  Lawrence North tried changing their game-plan up last week running Josh Roche 3rd, but he will likely be back to the anchor position.  Pendleton Heights will have Nathan Hendershot on the end of things and could make things interesting if they can stay closer this week than they did last week. 

Just outside:  Any team in the first heat, and any team that has gone sub 8

Prediction:
1) Lawrence Central – I picked them in my first set of predictions, going back to them
2) Ben Davis – fastest time going in, should probably be #1
3) Lawrence North – If they can get solid legs out of everybody, Roche will give them a shot to win it
4) Fort Wayne Snider – Out of the 2nd heat
5) Franklin Central – dragged to some fast legs
6) Pendleton Heights – Hendershot will do some work to get his team a medal, but won’t be able to catch the top legs
7) Westfield – I thought these guys would be more “on” by now, and they may have something left in the tank at the state meet
8) Carmel – I don’t think Porter or Walden will run on this.  They can still produce a solid squad without though
9) Columbus North – solid legs across the board, consistency

100
A massive tail wind in Fort Wayne and Lafayette makes this a difficult event to look at based off of seed times.  However, the top guys are still in the mix, and just a few extras may or may not have been pushed into it.  This event should produce some fast times on the new track, and it will be interesting to see how fast these guys really go.  I will go and make my heat by heat selections, and then predict the final order.

Heat 1 – Nick Stoner (Center Grove), Charles Tharp (FW Northrop), Khyran Shank (North Central)
Heat 2 – Quinton Jones (Harding), Jeraboam Wilson (Ben Davis)
Heat 3 – Kendal Frederick (FW Snider), Thomas Brueggemann (Columbus North), Jarvis McMillian (Hobart), Leo Cordova (Richmond)

Prediction:
1) Quinton Jones (Harding) – Has been the favorite most of the year
2) Charles Tharp (FW North Side) – a nice close win over Jones last week, obviously in contention
3) Thomas Brueggemann (Columbus North) – has been very under-rated, but has been winning big races
4) Jerry Wilson (Ben Davis) – focusing on just the 100 is a big advantage for this young man.  He has impressed me in interviews as a side note, that does not really relate to his performance on the track.
5) Nick Stoner (Center Grove) – Will have a big day ahead of him, this is just the start
6) Kendal Frederick (FW Snider) – better 200 runner, has not been performing as well lately
7) Leo Cordova (Richmond) – Does enough to get into this heat, eye on the prize in the 200
8) Khyran Shank (North Central) – Great closing speed in this race
9) Jarvis McMillian (Hobart) – 1st of 4 events.  Not sure he has the speed to really drop all these guys in the short distance though.

Heat 1 –Shane Mikesky (Zionsville), Glenn Powell (Lawrence Central), Anthony Yoder (Concord), Caleb Galoozis (Bloomington South)
Heat 2 –Jeremiah Wright (HSE), Jarrod Buchanon (SB Clay), Marcus Safer (Lawrence North)
Heat 3 –Max Tuttle (Bloomington North), Robert Rose (Ben Davis)

Prediction:
1) Drew Gambill (Shakamak) – I can’t see anybody holding off his speed if he is in the same shape as he was mid-season
2) Chris Walden (Carmel) – The kid is a big gamer, and runs great in the big meets.  This could be another one of those.
3) Nolan Fife (Seymour) – Out to make a name for himself on the big stage
4) Dan Porter (Carmel) – Hopefully last week was a fluke bad run.  We all have them.
5) Jason Crist (Franklin Central) – Possibly the 2nd best kick in the field.  Could sneak up even higher
6) Tyler Wynn (Goshen) – has good leg speed, which will help him get around some guys in the last lap
7) Kent Garrett (Guerin Catholic) – is there anybody better at sneaking into one of the last spots for a medal?
8) Josh Graham (Huntington North) – should be looking to make up for last year.  Stay clear of traffic.
9) Ryan Cutter (Chesterton) – show this kid some love.  He has been great all year, and will hopefully be able to make it all pay off Saturday.

4x100
This looks to be an Indianapolis highlight show of sprinters.  With Lawrence Central, Ben Davis, and Pike battling it out, it should look very similar to the North Central regional race.  Ben Davis has won this title many times, and will be ready for clean exchanges.  In fact, most of these teams have been near flawless throughout most the season.  These are huge team points, and Fort Wayne Snider finds themselves in the slow heat trying to sneak out some.  I’m not sure they will be able to do so.

Prediction:
1) Lawrence Central – Keeps winning
2) Ben Davis – Could they lose their title?  Or will tradition prevail
3) Pike – Clean exchanges could be the difference here
4) Warren Central – Another traditional power house.
5) Evansville Central – I can’t tell you a thing about these guys, but they find themselves in a nice position being able to see and run after the top teams
6) Richmond – Cordova should be able to run down some guys and get them in a solid position
7) FW Snider – Out of the slow heat, they will try to steal these points
8) Center Grove – Follow or lead Snider
9) Zionsville – Has been consistent throughout the year

400
Jarvis McMillian (Hobart) just blew this event up at the regional.  Being the only person to run under the 48 second barrier at the regional round, he enters the meet being the heavy favorite.  However, he may have run 3 races (2 100s, and 1 200) before this event.  Pending on the weather, how can this affect him.  The competition is much steeper than it was at the regional for him, and that will make things a bit harder for him.  Regardless, I think he can still put together a nice performance in this event.  The team race is hardly affected in this race, but Shauntis Lewis (FW Snider) will be looking to try and sneak some points out of the slow heat.

Prediction:
1) Jarvis McMillian (Hobart) – going to be superman for the day
2) Pat Feeney (New Palestine) – My pick last week, and he continues to run well
3) Dashawn Parnell (South Bend Washington) – consistent as of late
4) Keenan Johnson (Princeton) – Will have a 200 trial under his belt, but should be ok
5) Chris Giesting (Batesville) – surprised me a bit with his performance
6) Shauntis Lewis (FW Snider) – Big team points.  Has to come through
7) Austen Barnes (Homestead) – Has not received the recognition throughout the year as he probably deserves
8) Curtis Ivy (Plymouth) – Out of the 2nd heat
9) Erin Herd (FW Northrop) – Out of the 2nd heat

300h
This is the time when Max Tuttle (Bloomington North) truly gets to shine in his hometown.  I really feel it will be a race for second.  Jarrod Buchanon (SB Clay), Ray Skamay (Lowell) and Shane Mikesky (Zionsville) seem the most likely to battle it out after that.  Shane could be coming off a state winning 110H race, which could boost him even farther up.  Ben Davis will have both D’Quan Ruth and Robert Rose in this race looking to grab some valuable team points.  Ruth is in the fast heat in lane 1, which does not bode well for him with his slower than average start.  However, Rose will have a nice middle lane in the middle heat to try and grab some points.

Prediction:
1)  Max Tuttle (Bloomington North) – His event, his track
2) Shane Mikesky (Zionsville) – No mess ups this time in the fast heat
3) Jarrod Buchanon (South Bend Clay) – Finish his career with a solid finish
4) Ray Skamay (Lowell) – has proven to be legit with a 38 run
5) Logan Hoffman (FW Concordia) – Solid all year, and in the right heat to perform well in
6) Jeremiah Wright (Hamilton Southeastern) – Solid day’s work
7) Robert Rose (Ben Davis) – Team points needed here
8) Anthony Yoder (Concord) – middle heat will have some good competitors in it
9) James Elia (Valparaiso) – I believe this kid has 4 events on the day.  True athlete

800
This may be the most stacked 800 ever in history on paper.  It will be interesting to see if it plays out that well, but I feel it will.  Nathan Hendershot (Pendleton Heights) will be on a mission to finally capture a state title, and appears to have learned to go out hard, and finish hard.  This should make it a fast race for everybody.  Drew Gambill (Shakamak) is the only other person who I feel can contend with him, but I do not think he will have it after the 1600.  Austin Mudd (Center Grove) has run great from mid-season on, but I have not been lucky enough to see him run in person in the 800.

Prediction:
1) Nathan Hendershet (Pendleton  Heights) – Expect him to take it out in about :54.  1:50 is likely his goal, if not sub
2) Austin Mudd (Center Grove) – Can run big… but can he run big enough?
3) Jason Waterman (Bloomington North) – Has been solid all year, and should have a nice fan base
4) Connor Claflin (Lawrence Central) – Got a taste of the pace last week
5) Drew Gambill (Shakamak) – Will be worn out after a tough 1600
6) Amanuel Medhane (Ben Davis) – under-rated, and also got a nice taste of a fast one last week
7) Jordan Gornall (Bloomington South) – not quite the level of dominance he had during the indoor season, but he only needs to pop one good one
8) Mitch Dutton (FW Snider) – Capable of 1:53-:54 out of the slow heat
9) Mike Fauser (Boone Grove) – If he can run in traffic, he will be set.  Great choice for this man to focus on the 800

200
Quinntyn “Q” Qualls (Pike) ran a very impressive time at the regional, and is entirely focused on this event only.  This gives him an edge to start.  However, Leo Cordova (Richmond) should be a big contender, as he was the pre-season favorite.  Thomas Brueggemann (Columbus North) also won the 200 at Conference Indiana (which is the same conference as Pike).  Not to mention Kendal Frederick (FW Snider) will have to come up big for his team for the points. 

Heat 1 – Quinntyn Qualls (Pike), Leo Cordova (Richmond), Thomas Brueggeman (Columbus North)
Heat 2 – Tyrennzie Burgess (Lawrence Central), John Broaden (North Central), Nick Stoner (Center Grove)
Heat 3 – Kendal Frederick (FW Snider), Jarvis McMillian (Hobart), Anthony Kimmons (Arsenal Tech)

Prediction:
1)  Quinntyn Qualls (Pike) – 21.39 is no joke, and he looked relaxed until Burgess came on his shoulder.  Could push for the 21.0 mark
2) Leo Cordova (Richmond) – Runs the best curve, and could eat up a stagger quickly on anybody
3) Tyrennzie Burgess (Lawrence Central) – Focused on the 200, and has been chasing Q a few times now
4) Kendal Frederick (FW Snider) – Has his eyes on gold.  With the support of his team, could make it happen
5) Thomas Brueggemann (Columbus North) – Possibly the fastest start out of these top 5 guys
6) Nick Stoner (Center Grove) – May have been sand-bagging at the regional
7) John Broaden (North Central) – Great times all year long
8) Anthony Kimmons (Arsenal Tech) – Can he continue to overcome the controversy surrounding his name?
9) Jarvis McMillian (Hobart) – I think he will qualify, but be burnt out by the time finals come

3200
This is likely one of the best shows of the night.  Futsum Zeinasellassie (North Central) is the defending champion, but has been kicked down multiple times.  David Osborn (Chesterton) was another pre-season favorite, but has not had the same level of fitness.  Chris Walden (Carmel) was an all-american in cross country, but could possibly be coming off 2 events, and at least 1.  Tyler Byrne (North Harrison) was also an all-american, and has chosen this event over his traditional mile race.  Not to mention James Martin (Carroll FW) has never been able to win a state title, but has been close since his freshman year.
This race should go out fast with Futsum trying to weed out the kickers.  Think about 4:30-:35 pace.  This is great for those looking for somebody to attack that 9 minute barrier.  Tyler Byrne is strong enough to run with this, and put on some speed after that.   John Mascari (Terre Haute North) will likely lurk behind the pack and wait for his moment to strike which may not be until 300 meters to go.  I think Tyler Byrne has the best mix of speed and strength to come up with the win here though.

Prediction:
1) Tyler Byrne (North Harrison) – All American in XC, and one of the best milers in the field
2) Futsum Zeinasellassie (North Central) – Strong enough to run away from most of the field, could be strong enough to run away from them all
3) John Mascari (Terre Haute North) – contender, but not sure if he has the ability to run the 8:55 like the other two
4) Connor Martin (Westfield) – Will look to finish a state meet much better than his cross country way.  That has to be in his mind and in his locker reminding him for this day
5) James Martin (FW Carroll) – In the running once again for a title
6) Chris Walden (Carmel) – Can double back, but may not be able to double back quite well enough
7) Alejandro Arroyo (Culver Academies) – Very underrated, and can run big when it matters
8) Tom Ohlman (Carmel) – consistently a contender
9) Gabe Ocasio (Columbus North) – Been solid all year, and should be able to put one more together

4x400
I’m hoping for the state title to be decided in this event.  All of the teams are in the mix, and it should be interesting to see how it plays out.  Lowell came out of no where last week with a 3:17, and I do not know what to think about them.  Meanwhile, Snider, Lawrence Central, and Ben Davis have been consistent all year.  Chesterton always performs big at the regional and state meet, and Hobart has McMillian anchoring.  Outside of that, you have teams in the “slower” heats that can run under the 3:20 mark, and possibly put a tough threatening time on the board.  This should be interesting to see how it plays out, and really is a toss up.

Prediction:
1) Fort Wayne Snider – Consistency makes me pick them
2) Fort Wayne Northrop – Continuing to hold onto Snider
3) Lowell – No idea what they have, but they do have a 3:17 relay
4) Ben Davis – Could try to finish off with another win to win the team title
5) Lawrence Central – Ran a perfect relay last week.  Will look to improve on perfection though
6) Chesterton – Always drops some time
7) Pike – Perhaps the second heat will be a blessing with less traffic
8) Zionsville – Also in the second heat, with a big leg from Mikesky to possibly end things
9) Center Grove – Big anchor leg

High Jump
Jonathon Christensen (Southmont) continues to impress the state with his jumps leading up to the state meet.  He went 7’1.5” at the regional, and we can only hope that the atmosphere in Bloomington will help him go even higher.  However, Derrick Hill (Anderson Highland) continues to lurk right behind him and will look to challenge for that state title if Christensen slips up.

Prediction:
1)  Jonathan Christensen (Southmont) – jumping at and over the 7 foot mark consistantly
2) Derrick Hill (Anderson Highland) – Has the ability to “upset” Christensen
3) DeSean Prentice (Penn) –
4) Taylor Caldwell (Harrison) –
5) Ryan Helfert (Noblesville) – Needs to make sure he has one of his good days
6) Kody Galloway (Chesterton) – Very versatile athlete
7) Chandler Guion (Lapel) – hit 6’7” last week
8) Shayne Cureton (Avon) – Consistently been near the top of the state
9) Matt Gerbick (Andrean) – While not having his results before, I left him lower.  He will need to go past his standard mark to get in there

Long Jump
There are only a few athletes who have cleared the 23’ mark this season, and it will likely take a jump of that distance to win the state title.  Justin Boone (North Central), John Alsup (Kokomo), Josiah Lemons (Richmond), Matt Gerbick (Andrean), Brandon Muncie (Lawrence North), and Dylan Anderson (Bloomington North) are the athletes in the field who have done so.  However, as I have said in the previous previews, this is the event that often has some of the most “upsets” to me.  A lot of top athletes do not seem to be able to make the proper adjustments on the hard surface (although I do not know how the new surface is) and cannot get a great feel for hitting the board.  I will go with Brandon Muncie as my favorite to win due to the tradition that I have observed in recent years of Lawrence North jumpers coming to his aid in making those adjustments.

Prediction:
1)  Brandon Muncie (Lawrence North) – If he can’t make the adjustments, his coaches can
2) Justin Boone (North Central) – The north central regional did not jump as well for most athletes, so expect him to jump a bit farther at Bloomington.
3) Dylan Anderson (Bloomington North) – Home track and second seed is a good advantage to have
4) Matt Gerbick (Andrean) – Also in the high jump
5) John Alsup (Kokomo) – Can he find that one big jump?
6) Ray Beverly (Pike) – Coming out of the second flight
7) Michael Perkins (Valparaiso) – Will look to push that 23’ mark
8) Jake Dixon (Portage) – Has been progressively getting better on the board
9) Patrick Ellis (Shelbyville) – Can go over 22 consistently, and will need to on Saturday

Pole Vault
Bloomington has a great set up for being able to enjoy the Pole Vault competition.  I am going to change my state pick here to Drew Volz (Bloomington South).  He comes in with the highest vault by a good margin, and is the only one to hit the 16’ mark this season.  However, I feel that Michael Wanhainen (Castle) may still be his biggest threat, as he has performed well at the state meet before.  OF course, there are a plethora of Fort Wayne area vaulters who will be taking most of the medals. 

Prediction:
1)  Drew Volz (Bloomington South) – Going over 16’ again in front of the big crowd
2) Michael Wanhainen (Castle) – Will try to grab a state title in his senior year
3) Owen Wagoner (FW Carroll) – Always in the mix
4) Chase Payne (Homestead) – #2 Seed should come up big for Homesead
5) David Schipper (FW Dwenger) – Could be in striking distance for the state title as well
6) Kevin Jackson (Eastern) – Just hit the standard to advance
7) Trevor Young (Southport) – Has been very consistent in his performances late in the season
8) David Meza (Homestead) – Will look to medal with his teammate
9) Graham Reid (Cathedral) – one of the younger guys in the group

Predictions
1. Justin Applegate – Martinsville
2. Gabe Hull - Bloomington South
3. Elias Micozzi – SB Riley
4. Blake Donson – Eastern
5. Langston Newton – Carmel
6. Geoff Getts – Garrett
7. Dyrek Chowning – Warren Central
8. Leneil Himes - PLYM
9. Trevor Buckalew - Western

Team Race
The mock meet scores have shifted again.  Fort Wayne Snider put themselves in a tough spot with a few individuals and relays falling into “slow” heats.  They may go against the trend at the state meet, but typically that prevents them from scoring as high as possible.  I am going to break down some of the top teams, and how they have a shot to win this thing.

1.  Lawrence Central (44)
Events scoring in mock meet:  4x8, 110H, 4x100, 800, 200, 4x400
Also has participants in:  400, HJ
Key Factors:  Being the “favorite” entering the meet means it is yours to lose.  The relays can all come away with a title, and then they just need to come away with solid points in their other events.