Indiana Runner

Boys State Meet Preview

By:  Stephen Bain

The semi state meets have come to a conclusion and our 24 team format plus individuals has finally been created.  This season has truly been a treat to us all in Indiana, and the finale to the IHSAA season should be no different.

Last week the leaves began to turn colors and cover the trails.  The rains poured down on courses all across the state causing times not to be very fast, but the races remained exciting.  It just goes to prove how exciting the sport truly is, and how irrelevant times really are.

Illnesses have been a terrible curse to teams all across the state, and surely will continue to play a role.  However, each team must accept the fact that it is part of the 2009 season.  H1N1, plus any other flus and cold like symptoms are simply what is going on with the weather changing and viruses in the air.

In this preview, I try to breakdown the teams by showing each team’s top 7 performances to give you an idea of how the team is built.  I also list the best times the individuals have run.  I give my predictions (opposed to rankings) and plus the rest of the Boys’ staff gives their quick top 5 picks on both the team and individual side to remind you that my opinions are far from final.  I hope you enjoy what is written beyond this, as a lot of time is put into it.

Enough about general information, let’s begin looking at the top 24 teams and how they got here!

TEAM SEGMENT

Below each team is a list of a possible/expected roster and season bests (to my knowledge) next to them.  This is in such way an indicator of what they will run on the LaVern Gibson course, simply there for information on how the team is built and has the potential to run.

The HEAVY Favorites

I will not crown anybody yet, but these guys simply are dominating this season and still have yet to be beat.  They run hard from gun to tape, and it is very hard for any team to react.

Columbus North – 44 points in a semi state is a very dominant performance.  44 points in the Carmel semi state is simply unfair.  These guys continue to sit atop our rankings and it has been their state title to lose for quite some time.  Scruton has been talked about being a top 10 guy and he finished 4^th on their team.  That means they could be even better!

Looking to Upset

These are the teams that if anybody was to upset, who it would be.  However, I am also going to list the reason why they aren’t.  It is by no means an attack on the individual, but just the difference between having a shot at it, and why Columbus North are the HEAVY favorites, and not simply the favorites.

Chesterton – The Trojans looked to put on a show at the New Prairie Semi State.  However, 40 points at the relatively weak New Prairie Semi State is not much to hold up against the 44 scored by Columbus.  Maybe once Ryan Cutter is healthy he can help lower that score even more.  Osborn will put the low point up front in the top 5, but the rest of the team needs to get after it.  They have done a nice job overcoming the issues with some of their varsity guys to rise back up to the top like they were expected in the first place.

Noblesville – This team has been dealing with its own battles but ran away with a clear runner up award at the Carmel Semi State.  Marowski has been the big question mark as he battles his way back from injury, but needs to continue to re-establish himself as a front-runner.  With that, Noblesville may have enough depth back to their 5 and 6 to have a shot, but may not be able to match Columbus North up front.

Carmel – Saying that things did not go exactly as planned for Carmel would be an understatement when talking about their Semi State race.  Ask Tito, http://www.carmelxc.com/.  However, they advanced, and are at the state meet, once again.  These guys remain dangerous because of the strong 1, 2 punch.  However, Porter’s health is what is holding them back from even being in contention of a state title.  Without him as a strong #3 runner, they become a team running to get on the podium rather than to raise the trophy.

North Central – The Panthers only have to score 4 guys, as Futsum will be scoring a single digit, even if he has to stop and re-tie his shoe.  Julian Toumey is the guy who has taken them out of the realm of being real contenders for the state title.  From what I have heard though, he could snap right back out of that which would help boost these guys up another notch.

Teams with Podium Dreams

These teams probably cannot beat Columbus North due to either a lack of true front runners, or a lack of depth.  However, they may have enough weapons to knock off some of the teams listed above them and snatch All-State team honors.

Terre Haute North – That semi state race ended up much closer than anybody expected it would.  John Davis did not run, but he has not run a few times in big meets for the Patriots now.  They have a very solid pack, that could place very high, but I’m not sure they have the amount of sub 16 capable guys that the Bulldogs do to give them a real shot.  If these guys pack it pretty tightly, and with Mascari (one of the most under-rated runners in the state) up front, they have a very good shot of leaving the day with some hardware.

North Harrison – First of all, great job to these guys for not crowning Terre Haute North before the race as many did before, including me.  However, their story is going to be the same as it has been.  They are 4 deep, with their 5 a ways back.  The question is, are their 4 going to be up far enough so that the five does not matter.  Byrne is going to score single digit, then the rest of the team needs to come flying in not too long after.

Concord – Now these guys have really come on at the right time.  Are they coming on, or are the other teams coming back in the Fort Wayne portion of the state?  Nonetheless these guys have to have their eyes on the podium after winning the New Haven Semi State.  Daniel Zelaya has come on since mid-season and will be looking to claim his own all-state honors, which would greatly help his team as they go for the podium.

Huntington North – This team has not really pulled it together to meet pre-season hype.  Brandon probably jinxed them realistically.  However, they have been a solid team and do have the weapons in place… minus one.  Sam Doughty went down with a stress fracture and this knocked the team out of contention.  Perhaps they can find a good one in them this weekend though!

Zionsville – The eagles continue to run with a pack and have edged their way out of the Carmel semi state.  Their strength is in their #5, who will need to run well in order to have a chance to upset some teams in front of them.

Hamilton Southeastern – This team has been under-rated as far as surprise teams go in my opinion.  Wartenberg has been battling the great H1N1, but has a week to recover for Terre Haute.  They flip flopped with Zionsville over the past two weeks and are well battle tested going into the state meet.

South Bend St. Joseph’s – They shocked the world at Culver, but have not put together quite a race since.  However, that leaves the potential for these guys to do some serious damage who took down Chesterton at that meet.  If they can run like that, they are right in the mix.

Looking for a Top 10 Finish

I’ll be honest; I think there is a gap here between the teams.  Some of them could hop up if the other teams try to be too aggressive in going for the podium, but on a regular basis I think they are just on the next tier.

West Lafayette – They are a team that I know has been battling the flu bug in a lot of their varsity runners.  As I said earlier, at this point it cannot be an excuse.  As I write this, I am hearing on the news that President Obama is announcing H1N1 as a national crisis.  The Red Devils placed third in the New Prairie Semi State, but if they can get all of their guys healthy over the course of a week, they could look to sneak in on some teams.

LaPorte – If West Lafayette has a shot, then surely the team who just beat them also has one.  The Slicers once again put together a nice post-season race.  This is a team that is truly becoming an elite program in The Region.  Coach Beres continues to try and find guys who can produce some results.  Some familiar last names are in the mix with Hojnacki and Miller that will help support Hubner as they get the feel of a state meet.

Bloomington South – This team was a lot higher up mid-season, and has not really declined but has also not risen either.  They may have been over-shadowed by the great battle up front at the Brown County Semi State.  They have the weapons to crack into the top 10, but will need to run better than the past few races and go back to mid-season form.

Fort Wayne Bishop Dwenger – This team made a nice jump over South Bend St. Joseph’s at the Semi State and gapped itself from Snider.  Now they will look to continue to improve and hop a few other teams who have been ranked ahead all year.  They have nothing to lose and are able to take a chance.

The Rest

One of these teams will come and prove me wrong and crack into the top 10 with a miracle race.  However, I think these teams will finish 15^th and beyond, but have had great seasons.

Martinsville – This is a team I knew little, if anything about early in the season.  Then they put up some good times at the blazing Artesian Classic, but I partially disregarded those.  Then they just kept producing.  Jace Lowry has made himself a true front runner this year that will be looking to place very high.  Taylor Lowry will also do pretty well, but the 4, 5 will have a lot of company in front of them on the LaVern Gibson course. 

Fort Wayne Snider – This program has had a very good season and I think will be one of the top candidates to prove me wrong on my predictions (coming soon).  The re-emergence of Ethan Wappes helped this team lock up a state meet berth awhile back.  Now that they are here, they are in the middle of a lot of good teams and will look to fair the best they can.  Not sure what their goal will be.

Perry Central – Lead by blankity blank blank, and a few more blanks, this small school team with no big names has emerged fairly comfortably from the Brown County semi state and is now on their way to the state finals.  Expected these guys to come out and prove to the state that they can compete with all of the “big boys” on the big stage.

Culver Academies – Although another smaller school, they operate under different regulations than Perry Central.  Nonetheless, they will have Arroyo to lead the way with a low point.  That gives a nice advantage, especially since it is a low team point now.  Ostergren should also perform well, but the rest of the team will be behind some big packs from other semi states.

New Albany – The pack running team of the south.  The flu bug has cursed this team late in the season but now they have a week more to recover.  Do not be surprised if they get a few teams from the semi state race if they are able to recover.

Lake Central – The Blue Indians have continued to improve as a program and look to be attempting to make a trip to the state meet an annual event.  Gone are the days of Pratt, the St. Amor twins and Rainbolt but they have instead been lead by new names of Ponton, Horecky and company.  They will need to be part of a push to prove that the New Prairie Semi State was not down this year.

Pendleton Heights – Everybody knows that Nathan Hendershot is on this team.  Then Mills came along and suddenly the team had two very good front-runners.  Now the team has made it all the way to the big one and will have some low points up front that will do well for them here in the lower ranks against teams which will be lacking.

Valparaiso – They made it to the state meet, which will be great for their very young line up.  As a spectator, I have to say the team is looking to gain experience.  As a coach, and former athlete, I know that they are going to try and move up in the rankings in the final race of the season.  Ahmad is a big x-factor for how well this team can do.

Now the PREDICTIONS… yes these are my predictions and not rankings.  Yes, Noblesville did just beat Carmel.  Yes, Dwenger did just beat St. Joe’s.  This is just how I can see it going with some teams getting back into good form, knowing how to perform at a state meet, and perhaps recovering from some of that flu action!

Team Predictions

1.        Columbus North

2.        Carmel

3.        Noblesville

4.        Chesterton

5.        North Central

6.        North Harrison

7.        Terre Haute North

8.        Concord

9.        Zionsville

10.     Hamilton Southeastern

11.     Huntington North

12.     South Bend St. Joseph’s

13.     Fort Wayne Dwenger

14.     Bloomington South

15.     West Lafayette

16.     LaPorte

17.     Perry Central

18.     Martinsville

19.     Culver Academies

20.     Fort Wayne Snider

21.     New Albany

22.     Lake Central

23.     Pendleton Heights

24.     Valparaiso

Boys Staff Predictions

Drake Sterling

1.      Columbus North

2.      Chesterton

3.      Noblesville

4.      Carmel

5.      Terre Haute North

Louie Guillen

1.      Columbus North

2.      Noblesville

3.      Carmel

4.      Chesterton

5.      North Central

INDIVIDUAL SEGMENT

The individual race should be equally exciting, although it will be for one of two reasons.  The first is that Futsum is going to put on a show for all of Indiana to enjoy watching as he runs away from one of the most talented fields in the country.  The other possibility is that somebody comes up and makes it an exciting race as they try to pull the upset.

Listed next to each individual is their season best thanks to Mike Slaubaugh’s Top 100 XC Times list.

THE Kid

Futsum Zeinasellasse (10) – North Central [15:11]

This kid has proven that he can win in multiple ways.  He had a disappointing performance at the regional, only because he wanted to break his own course record.  Then he decided to sit back at the Carmel Semi Sate, although he pulled away at the 3k mark with apparent ease.  I know the other corners of the state think that he can be beaten, but he is surely the heavy favorite on the individual side.  I’m not even sure they could hold him off with another shoe incident this year.

Other Champions

David Osborn (12) – Chesterton [15:12]

Every point will be important for Chesterton if they want to pull an upset.  However, it could be an even bigger upset if Lil Ozzy can pull the upset on Futsum.  He made a charge at him at Culver, and faded but recovered well.  However, after an impressive run at the New Prairie Semi State, he may have found another gear which he will need to dip into in order to give him a run for his money.

Tyler Byrne (12) – North Harrison [15:09]

With the fastest time in the state, the south is rallying behind their standout runner.  Personally, I have not been able to see him run this season.  His team is now in the podium hunt as well.  Byrne showed some great 1600 speed last spring which could come in handy if the race comes down to that final straight away.

James Martin (11) – Carroll (Fort Wayne) [15:34]

Martin continues an impressive career, but the championship continues to be missing.  He has always run well at the state meet, which is a good sign.  After an impressively slow start to the season Martin has come into form, but many may say not quite the same form which has been shown in the past.  We will find out on Halloween.

More Front-Runners

William “Hale” O’Herren (12) – Cathedral [15:19]

The Hale bandwagon formed early, and rightfully so.  O’Herren threw down some impressive times on some respected courses, Northview and LaVern Gibson.  However, as of late he has not performed up to those same standards.  Perhaps he is just waiting his turn, as he was interviewed and said he would wait for the state meet to take a shot at Futsum.

Connor Martin (11) – Westfield [15:27]

A very rarely spoken about contender but has won his own fair share of races.  Just as O’Herren has lately, he has not run as well.  However, the potential is there to have a great performance.  Probably not enough tools to win the meet.

Scott Vicenzi (12) – Brownsburg [15:14]

Quietly defeated Connor Martin at the HCC meet, and then went on to quietly grab the runner-up finish at the Carmel Semi State.  Scott is coming into perfect form, at the right time. He is one of my dark-horse picks, although it is hard to call a runner up a dark-horse.

Nathan Hendershot (12) – Pendleton Heights [15:56]

A lot of hype early in the season, Hendershot was seen fighting through the finish to grab his runner up finish at the New Haven Semi State.  If by chance the day is windy and the race goes out slowly, it is no secret that this may be one of the most dangerous kickers sitting in the pack.

John Mascari (11) – Terre Haute North [15:30]

As I stated before, I think Mascari may be one of the more under-rated front-runners in the state and that may be because he has such a strong supporting cast behind him and the attention goes to the overall team.  Nonetheless, he will be looking to be up front and cash in on some low points to help make a podium run for his team and prove that the State Preview was not a fluke, and repeat that performance at the actual state meet.

Jason Crist (10) – Franklin Central

Watching this guy over the track season showed that he knows how to kick.  Either that means he was not using all of his energy or he knows how to tough it out at the end of a race.  He has proven that he can carry this over to the cross country season meaning that it is more likely knowing how to tough it out.  This becomes very dangerous on the state course with a long straight away and he will have nothing to lose by taking a shot at the front pack.  Expect him to catch some stragglers in the final 400 meters.

Chris Walden (11) [15:17] & Tom Ohlman (12) [15:24] – Carmel

These guys have been great together and have been a very large reason for Carmel’s success.  They did not run great at the semi state race, which some may think is a good sign.  However, it’s actually a bad thing as everybody has bad races and they already spent theirs now.  Expect these guys to be going big and trying to help the Greyhounds defend their state title.

Alejandro Arroyo (12) – Culver Academies [15:31]

This guy has been around for years now, but continues to perform well when it matters.  He had a nice showing at the semi state, grabbing the runner up spot to an impressive Osborn.  He goes unnoticed, being in a quiet part of the state, but he should be able to put himself in contention to get on the podium individually.

Evan Scruton (12) [15:39], Gabe Ocasio (11) [15:40], Andrew Diehn (10) [15:46], Christopher Kelsey (10) [15:55], Corbin Brooks (12) [16:06], Andrew Beiriger (11) [16:00] & whoever else Columbus North chooses as their #7 – Columbus North

Ok, so these guys will not all be all-state (most likely).  However, a lot of them do have a shot at gaining all-state honors.  Scruton has often been their #1 guy, but Diehn has been stellar nearing the end of this season.  On that subject, Diehn and Kelsey have been the major x-factors on why Columbus North is just this good this year.  Gabe Ocasio has been a great runner through the years and shall continue to do so.  Corbin Brooks just now has started running well so do not be fooled by his time in comparison to the others.

Josh Genet (11) – Northeast Dubois [15:33]

Here is another quietly good runner in the south.  He continues to perform well out of his 1A school, and will be representing proudly in Terre Haute.  A runner with no team attached can often be more dangerous as he is able to take chances.  This could be the case and this guy could crack into the top 10 on the right day.  But I would expect to see him on the podium with a medal around his neck.

Kyle Overway (11) – Logansport [15:50]

Have you found a theme here?  A lot of these guys I am listing have been under the radar.  Overway is no exception as Logansport does not make a lot of noise on the team aspect of the sport.  Nonetheless, expect him to contend for a podium spot, and at least grab an IATCCC all-state spot!

Individual Predictions

1.        Futsum Zeinasellasse (North Central)

2.        Tyler Byrne (North Harrison)

3.        David Osborn (Chesterton)

4.        Scott Vicenzi (Brownsburg)

5.        James Martin (FW Carroll)

6.        Chris Walden (Carmel)

7.        John Mascari (Terre Haute North)

8.        Jason Crist (Franklin Central)

9.        Tate Shienbein (Union County)

10.     Andrew Diehn (Columbus North)

11.     Connor Martin (Westfield)

12.     Hale O’Herren (Cathedral)

13.     Nathan Hendershot (Pendleton Heights)

14.     Tom Ohlman (Carmel)

15.     Evan Scruton (Columbus North)

16.     Josh Genet (Northeast Dubois)

17.     Alejandro Arroyo (Culver Academies)

18.     Traishaun Johnson (Ben Davis)

19.     Joe Ebling (Hamilton Southeastern)

20.     Gabe Ocasio (Columbus North)

21.     Brad Hess (Carroll)

22.     Ross Ochs (Huntington North)

23.     Connor Geshay (North Central)

24.     Jace Lowry (Martinsville)

25.     Kyle Overway (Logansport)

Honorable Mention:  Kent Garrett (Guerin Catholic) Dylan Harrison (Merrillville), Cameron Balser (Oak Hill), Drew Gambill (Shakamak), Jake Carden (Kouts), Noblesville guys, Daniel Zelaya (Concord)

Staff Predictions

Drake Sterling

1.      Futsum Zeinasellasse

2.      Tyler Byrne

3.      James Martin

4.      David Osborn

5.      Connor Martin

Louie Guillen

1.  Futsum Zeinasellasse

2.  Tyler Byrne

3.  David Osborn

4.  James Martin

5.  Scott Vicenzi

I hope this preview gives everybody an idea of what to expect come this Saturday.  All I can suggest is that you get down to Terre Haute on your own and really experience Indiana High School Cross Country at its finest.  This season has been remarkably fast and hopefully it can be capped off with an exciting final as well.

Enjoy the day, and have a safe Halloween night.